Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce98…fbb1 sports 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$160 (-3%) realized −$138 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%210W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$12
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$410
weather 13% +$16
world 9% +$64
other 6% −$5
crypto 3% −$4
tech 2% −$11
politics 1% +$2
finance 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.3% -5.7% 68% 21% -9.8%
≤30d 336 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 23% -16.8%
≤90d 336 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 23% -16.8%
all 336 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 23% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 23% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 16% -24.8%
15% -28.5% 13% -32.0%
20% -35.5% 11% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses210 / 126
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions23
Markets (closed)336 / 359
History coverage29d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 37¢ 99¢ $26 $71 +$45 (+171%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $17 $27 +$10 (+56%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+33%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+3%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 78¢ 92¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-46%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in June? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+121%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? No 59¢ 81¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 19¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in June? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 14 $14 −$8 -61%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $27 +$9 +33%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +64%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 07 $14 $0 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 $0 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Makarska: Rebecca Sramkova vs Tara Wurth Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Sramkova vs. Wurth: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $6 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Sramkova vs Wurth Jun 04 $10 $0 -2%
Sramkova vs. Wurth: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $2 $0 -3%
Rebecca Sramkova vs. Tara Wurth: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $13 $0 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $95 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 14h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 29h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 29h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 30h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 30h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 30h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 35h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 36h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 36h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 38h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 39h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 94¢ $3 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $0 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 93¢ $0 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $0 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $0 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 88¢ $2 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 85¢ $0 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 85¢ $2 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 88¢ $13 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 2d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.79 · official $255.56 (match) · 1181 history records