Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce97…0160 crypto 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-11%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%44W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$42
crypto 33% −$60
tech 12% −$16
world 10% −$17
sports 4% +$32
politics 2% +$28
culture 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.8% -43.8% 25% 25% -43.5%
≤30d 4 -37.8% -43.8% 25% 25% -43.5%
≤90d 9 -4.8% -13.8% 22% 22% +10.9%
all 168 -30.5% -37.1% 26% 25% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 25% -22.3%
10% -43.1% 25% -29.8%
15% -48.6% 24% -36.6%
20% -53.7% 20% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses44 / 124
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)168 / 172
History coverage133d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$42 +408%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 12 $5 $0 +8%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 27 $8 −$5 -58%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 27 $13 −$12 -94%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 25 $2 −$1 -63%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $1 $0 +37%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 24 $1 $0 -33%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $5 −$2 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Feb 22 $1 $0 -17%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 19 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 19 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $5 +$24 +476%
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Feb 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 19 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026? Feb 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 39m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 40m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 41m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 42m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 35d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 41d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 41d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 91d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 96d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 102d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 102d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 104d
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 105d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 105d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 105d
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 105d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 105d
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 105d
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 105d
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 105d
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 105d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 105d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.96 · official $20.96 (match) · 335 history records