Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce95…8d53
crypto · 69 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$411 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$410 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$410
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses41 / 23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)64 / 69
History coverage7d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$307
7 days−$430
14 days−$410
30 days−$410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? No 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? No 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? No 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$50 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $90 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $139 +$51 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$41 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $246 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $88 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $312 −$24 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $176 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $232 +$53 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $261 +$51 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $122 −$79 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $143 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $71 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $131 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $55 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $124 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $232 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $164 −$80 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $72 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $81 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $115 +$29 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $144 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $207 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$399
politics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $45 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $43 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $94 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $86 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $90 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $96 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $91 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $88 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $53 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $44 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $49 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $43 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $41 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $33 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -17.9% -25.7% 62% 26% -15.9%
≤30d 64 -11.1% -19.6% 64% 28% -15.6%
≤90d 64 -11.1% -19.6% 64% 28% -15.6%
all 64 -11.1% -19.6% 64% 28% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 28% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 14% -23.6%
15% -34.3% 6% -31.0%
20% -40.8% 5% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.66 · official $24.66 (match) · 291 history records