Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce95…3a96 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$2
other 25% −$6
politics 17% $0
sports 10% $0
finance 8% $0
tech 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 56 -1.9% -11.2% 32% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage318d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -22%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $67 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $35 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $33 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 30 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $31 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $31 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $3 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $32 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $35 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $35 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.42 · official $34.42 (match) · 170 history records