Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CE 0xce94…a897 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$414 (-21%) realized −$412 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$399per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-31.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	-24.0%	-31.3%	50%	0%	-32.0%
≤90d	4	-24.0%	-31.3%	50%	0%	-32.0%
all	4	-24.0%	-31.3%	50%	0%	-32.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.3%	0%	-32.0%
10%	-37.8%	0%	-38.5%
15%	-43.8%	0%	-44.4%
20%	-49.4%	0%	-49.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$431 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$324

Realized−$412

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage13d

Avg bet$399

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	93¢	92¢	$326	$324	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Curaçao leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$424	+$12	+3%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Jun 14	$385	+$4	+1%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$431	−$431	-100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Jun 13	$430	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$326	1h
Curaçao leading at halftime?	BUY No	97¢	$424	11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	SELL No	93¢	$389	11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$385	12d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland?	BUY No	93¢	$431	12d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	SELL No	93¢	$430	12d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	BUY No	93¢	$430	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.75 · official $323.75 (match) · 8 history records