Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:05:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CE 0xce94…36ce crypto 10 markets active 3h ago coverage 162d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,297 (-35%) realized −$1,208 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days+$118
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,265
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -56.6% -60.7% 33% 33% -45.6%
≤90d 6 -58.9% -62.9% 33% 33% -46.3%
all 9 -56.6% -60.7% 33% 33% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 33% -46.1%
10% -64.5% 11% -51.2%
15% -67.9% 0% -55.9%
20% -71.1% 0% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$257 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized−$1,208
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage162d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down on June 22? Down 85¢ 74¢ $690 $601 −$89 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $556 +$168 +30%
XRP Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $598 −$598 -100%
Solana Up or Down on March 28? Mar 28 $80 −$79 -99%
XRP Up or Down on March 23? Mar 26 $130 −$130 -100%
XRP Up or Down on March 26? Mar 26 $204 +$33 +16%
XRP Up or Down on January 13? Mar 22 $164 −$164 -100%
XRP Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $687 −$523 -76%
Solana Up or Down on January 11? Jan 12 $570 +$117 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 85¢ $698 3h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 3¢ $50 27h
XRP Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 75¢ $556 12d
XRP Up or Down on June 6? BUY Down 79¢ $598 15d
Solana Up or Down on March 28? BUY Down 41¢ $30 86d
Solana Up or Down on March 28? BUY Down 68¢ $50 86d
XRP Up or Down on March 26? SELL Down 91¢ $237 87d
XRP Up or Down on March 26? BUY Down 78¢ $204 88d
XRP Up or Down on March 23? BUY Down 61¢ $130 91d
XRP Up or Down on January 13? BUY Down 79¢ $164 160d
XRP Up or Down on January 12? SELL Down 23¢ $164 160d
XRP Up or Down on January 12? BUY Down 95¢ $687 161d
Solana Up or Down on January 11? BUY Up 83¢ $570 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.17 · official $633.67 · 18 history records