Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce93…7482 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 28% −$5
politics 6% −$2
finance 5% $0
crypto 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 31 -13.1% -21.4% 42% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 0% -10.6%
10% -28.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -35.7% 0% -26.9%
20% -42.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $28 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $9 −$1 -10%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 26 $4 −$2 -55%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $13 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $29 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $29 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $32 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $32 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $6 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $20 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $28 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.66 · official $28.66 (match) · 110 history records