Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce91…a827 politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$18
other 21% −$4
world 18% −$3
culture 11% −$3
sports 6% −$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$933) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage89d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Jun 24 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 23 $998 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $933 −$2 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the Jun 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera May 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $839 −$10 -1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $967 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $1,784 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $887 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 14 $888 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 01 $22 $0 +1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $115 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Apr 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $121 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 27 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $993 30m
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 49m
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 56m
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $964 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $971 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $934 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $673 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $248 2h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $922 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $73 20h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $988 20h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 20h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $945 20h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 20h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 21h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 21h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 21h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 21h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $933 22h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $61 35h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $967 35h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records