Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8e…601c world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$49 (-4%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$3
world 31% −$3
other 20% −$11
finance 11% −$37
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 18 -4.3% -13.4% 11% 6% -10.2%
≤90d 22 -4.9% -14.0% 18% 5% -12.4%
all 30 +1.6% -8.1% 20% 10% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 10% -13.0%
10% -16.9% 7% -21.3%
15% -24.9% 3% -28.9%
20% -32.3% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage532d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 −$1 -33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $121 −$37 -30%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $223 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $239 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $245 $0 +0%
Wisconsin vs. Purdue Feb 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? Feb 16 $11 −$11 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the match between Olympiacos and FK Qarabag end in a draw? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on January 25? Feb 02 $1 +$6 +444%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 22 $6 −$1 -12%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $4 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $3 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $32 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $36 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $19 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $17 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records