Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8b…738a sports 266 markets active 5h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$228 (-3%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%121W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$154
14 days−$169
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$245
other 16% −$169
world 5% −$23
tech 3% −$3
crypto 2% +$1
weather 2% −$11
finance 1% $0
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -27.0% -34.0% 44% 43% -17.2%
≤30d 174 -15.7% -23.8% 48% 43% -13.9%
≤90d 246 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 36% -16.4%
all 266 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 39% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 39% -15.5%
10% -32.1% 29% -23.6%
15% -38.7% 20% -31.0%
20% -44.7% 15% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses121 / 145
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage197d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $12 −$6 -49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$57 +132%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $16 +$11 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $24 +$6 +24%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $10 +$18 +171%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $35 +$5 +14%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $12 −$9 -76%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $27 −$11 -41%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $23 +$7 +28%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $57 +$13 +22%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $32 +$10 +31%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $32 −$16 -50%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $32 +$12 +38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $43 +$6 +15%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $6 +$9 +154%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $63 +$36 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $36 +$4 +11%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $24 −$9 -39%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $16 −$10 -65%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $12 −$7 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 +$25 +33%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $95 +$4 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$11 +124%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $19 −$11 -57%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $32 −$16 -50%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $25 −$13 -52%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $11 −$4 -39%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $10 −$2 -25%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $32 −$16 -49%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $23 +$7 +32%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $7 +$3 +39%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$7 -40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $16 −$8 -49%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$4 -25%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $22 +$8 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 31¢ $6 4h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $0 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $42 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 6h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 92¢ $28 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $0 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 38¢ $11 8h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Fiona Ferro 99¢ $30 15h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 80¢ $24 15h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 95¢ $28 16h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 35¢ $10 16h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka SELL Oliver Crawford 100¢ $40 16h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 88¢ $25 16h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 88¢ $11 16h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 53¢ $10 16h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Sofia Kenin 10¢ $3 16h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 100¢ $30 17h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 57¢ $11 17h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon SELL Daniel Rincon 99¢ $30 17h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Daniel Rincon 77¢ $23 17h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 53¢ $14 18h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 53¢ $2 18h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 40¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 856 history records