Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8a…e1f1 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 28% −$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% −$4
weather 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 49 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -10.4%
10% -18.9% 2% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage449d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 24 $13 −$6 -47%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? May 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 23 $2 +$3 +125%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $11 −$4 -41%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance in March? Mar 30 $21 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 30 $23 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $41 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $41 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $30 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $23 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $15 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $6 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records