Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce8a…6d7c
sports · 1368 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$155 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$5
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses754 / 606
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1360 / 1368
History coverage85d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 8 History 1360 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$23
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +307%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2 +$2 +113%
ITF Kayseri: Defne Aydemir vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ireland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -76%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $2 $0 -23%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $1 $0 -34%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +71%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +66%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +85%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -14%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $1 $0 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$117
crypto 33% −$44
other 11% +$12
weather 1% −$6
politics 0% −$4
world 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 30¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 47¢ $1 8h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 8h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 51¢ $1 8h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel SELL Federico Cina 46¢ $1 8h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel SELL Taro Daniel 70¢ $1 8h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 40¢ $1 8h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 49¢ $1 10h
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano SELL Oliver Tarvet 69¢ $1 10h
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano SELL Filippo Romano 40¢ $2 10h
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano BUY Filippo Romano 24¢ $1 10h
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano BUY Oliver Tarvet 49¢ $1 11h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $1 11h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 73¢ $1 11h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -1.0% -10.4% 53% 50% -4.1%
≤30d 339 -11.1% -19.6% 51% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 1360 -6.2% -15.1% 55% 47% -14.8%
all 1360 -6.2% -15.1% 55% 47% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 47% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 35% -22.9%
15% -30.6% 25% -30.4%
20% -37.4% 19% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.43 · official $5.43 (match) · 3500 history records