Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce88…5d23 other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate81%100W / 23L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$6
other 34% +$1
sports 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
all 123 +1.0% -8.6% 81% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses100 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage541d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 02 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 11? Jan 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20? Jan 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of December 202 Jan 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 10 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 20? Dec 21 $1,706 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 1 Dec 20 $1,707 +$2 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 17 $110 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 1 Dec 15 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on December 12? Dec 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $119 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $119 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $104,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 2 Nov 24 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Nov 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 8? Nov 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Nov 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 08 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 29 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 26? Oct 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on October 21? Oct 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October Oct 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 16? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 22d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $28 22d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 22d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $45 22d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $78 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $77 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $77 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $78 75d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 75d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $78 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $77 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $22 166d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 166d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $55 186d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20? BUY No 100¢ $2 186d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 186d
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,706 187d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 1 BUY No 100¢ $1,707 188d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $108 188d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $108 190d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL No 97¢ $98 190d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 SELL No 98¢ $10 190d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY No 100¢ $110 190d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $110 191d
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of December 202 BUY No 100¢ $10 191d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 1 BUY No 100¢ $120 192d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 SELL No 100¢ $120 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.80 · official $78.80 (match) · 299 history records