Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CE 0xce82…03d3 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$626 (+20%) realized +$633 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$172
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$782
sports 15% +$138
world 10% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +34.5% +21.7% 25% 25% +112.6%
≤30d 12 +34.5% +21.7% 25% 25% +112.6%
≤90d 12 +34.5% +21.7% 25% 25% +112.6%
all 17 +25.4% +13.5% 35% 35% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 35% +13.8%
10% +2.6% 29% +2.9%
15% -7.3% 29% -7.0%
20% -16.4% 29% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +135% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$48 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized+$633
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions14
Markets (closed)17 / 31
History coverage626d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $154 $152 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 39¢ 38¢ $94 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 36¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 20¢ 20¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 16¢ 16¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Germany 4¢ 5¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+35%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 9¢ 8¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Germany 1¢ 1¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Spread: United States (-3.5) United States 6¢ 6¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-4.5) United States 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $9 +$91 +982%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 +$72 +262%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 +$41 +70%
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-5.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-4.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05? Jan 26 $299 +$349 +117%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $996 +$195 +20%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 23 $502 +$411 +82%
Iran strike on Israel before November? Dec 21 $301 −$301 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 7¢ $23 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 2¢ $0 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 2¢ $4 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 2¢ $0 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 2¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 2¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 4¢ $0 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 4¢ $8 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 8¢ $45 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 9¢ $93 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $19 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $59 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $3 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $7 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 1¢ $6 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 4¢ $0 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 4¢ $4 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 9¢ $9 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 1¢ $0 2h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 2¢ $3 2h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 4¢ $4 2h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 4¢ $0 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 9¢ $5 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.87 · official $571.87 (match) · 84 history records