Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce81…18db sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$8
other 33% +$4
tech 16% +$2
culture 10% +$1
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 16 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage177d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 02 $218 $0 +0%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12 May 12 $218 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $218 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Bulls Apr 11 $218 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $216 +$2 +1%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Apr 01 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $1,014 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 16 $1,011 +$3 +0%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 13 $1,010 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $300? Mar 07 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of February? Feb 28 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Suns Feb 12 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 2 above $3.00? Feb 07 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 19 above $215? Jan 24 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jan 13 $1,004 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $119 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $218 30d
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12 BUY No 100¢ $218 47d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $218 64d
Magic vs. Bulls BUY Magic 100¢ $218 76d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 99¢ $216 84d
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,015 91d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 100¢ $1,014 101d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers BUY Mavericks 100¢ $1,011 102d
76ers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $1,010 105d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $300? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 111d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of February? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 119d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 100¢ $1,007 134d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 2 above $3.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,006 142d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 19 above $215? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 154d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? BUY No 100¢ $1,004 164d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.04 · official $218.04 (match) · 35 history records