trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +15.1% | +4.1% | 67% | 33% | -7.9% |
| ≤90d | 31 | -4.8% | -13.8% | 58% | 29% | -9.3% |
| all | 144 | +3.6% | -6.3% | 69% | 51% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.3% | 51% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -15.2% | 41% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -23.4% | 31% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -30.9% | 17% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 70¢ | 96¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 (+37%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 84¢ | 86¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 66¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+72%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $2 | $2 | +$1 (+43%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Knicks (-8.5) | Jun 11 | $7 | +$3 | +45% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 06 | $74 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | May 29 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $4 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $7 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Switzerland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | May 14 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 23 | $78 | −$78 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 19 | $73 | +$26 | +36% |
| Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 18 | $16,989 | −$17 | -0% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 18 | $17,006 | −$17 | -0% |
| Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 | Apr 17 | $40 | −$39 | -99% |
| Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 14 | $1,090 | −$1 | -0% |
| Bulls vs. Wizards | Apr 14 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 06 | $1,296 | $0 | -0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | Apr 04 | $11 | +$9 | +76% |
| Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 03 | $1,194 | $0 | -0% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | Mar 31 | $6 | +$4 | +82% |
| Heat vs. Cavaliers | Mar 31 | $46 | +$24 | +52% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | Mar 31 | $41 | −$41 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Rockets | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 31 | $982 | −$2 | -0% |
| Pelicans vs. Pistons | Mar 27 | $13 | +$7 | +54% |
| Kings vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 | Mar 26 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Magic | Mar 23 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Hawks | Mar 23 | $1,000 | +$250 | +25% |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | Mar 21 | $16 | +$4 | +27% |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Mar 21 | $52 | +$18 | +35% |
| Spread: Celtics (-20.5) | Mar 16 | $3 | +$2 | +89% |
| Spread: Heat (-3.5) | Mar 16 | $5 | +$5 | +100% |
| Hornets vs. Spurs | Mar 16 | $7 | +$3 | +43% |
| Nets vs. 76ers | Mar 16 | $8 | +$2 | +30% |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Mar 16 | $8 | +$2 | +33% |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $4 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw | Mar 16 | $19 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A | Mar 16 | $21 | +$9 | +41% |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $25 | +$5 | +22% |
| Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $54 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 16 | $283 | +$97 | +34% |
| Spread: Clippers (-12.5) | Mar 14 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Mar 14 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Lakers | Mar 14 | $123 | +$27 | +22% |