Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce81…a60c crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$240 (+1%) realized +$237 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%56W / 4L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$30
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$133
economics 19% −$28
other 10% +$40
finance 9% +$36
politics 5% +$42
tech 1% +$14
sports 1% +$24
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 17% -8.4%
≤90d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 93% 13% -8.3%
all 60 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -8.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$565) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.48 per $1 lost it wins $5.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$1,120
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses56 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage260d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $641 $643 +$2 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $267 $267 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $209 $209 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1,128 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $187 +$25 +13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $109 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $640 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 24 $842 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? May 06 $330 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 06 $565 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $560 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 17 $327 +$3 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $556 +$4 +1%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 13 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 13 $209 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $195 +$14 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 22 $555 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 16? Mar 14 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $547 +$5 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $442 +$4 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $640 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $540 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Mar 02 $94 +$5 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 26 $608 +$26 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 21 $602 +$7 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Feb 03 $651 −$50 -8%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 02 $1,191 +$42 +4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Dec 30 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $553 +$15 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $521 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 3? Dec 04 $37 +$2 +6%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Dec 03 $23 +$4 +19%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 03 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Nov 19 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Nov 19 $412 +$3 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 14 $514 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $18 +$3 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 01 $478 +$36 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19? Oct 18 $1,156 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17? Oct 17 $1,138 +$18 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on October 15? Oct 16 $348 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,800 on October 15? Oct 16 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 15? Oct 16 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,900 and $5,000 on October 13? Oct 14 $1,130 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 12? Oct 13 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $267 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $265 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $209 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $212 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $227 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $114 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $87 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $109 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $69 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $44 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $641 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $641 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $640 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $213 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $213 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $213 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $112 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $113 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $901 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $849 29d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $19 47d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $842 47d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $282 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $565 57d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $565 57d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $330 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $285 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $45 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,119.57 · official $1,119.57 (match) · 172 history records