Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce80…9a82 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (365 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24,994 (+47%) realized +$25,050 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$7,551per market
Trades / day365.0pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$13,866
crypto 35% +$12,371
sports 9% +$675
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.8% -1.5% 80% 60% +37.7%
≤30d 5 +8.8% -1.5% 80% 60% +37.7%
≤90d 5 +8.8% -1.5% 80% 60% +37.7%
all 5 +8.8% -1.5% 80% 60% +37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover365.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 60% +37.7%
10% -11.0% 40% +24.5%
15% ← realistic here -19.6% 40% +12.5%
20% -27.4% 20% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
24.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,772 vs −$120 · ×56.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×226.5 per $1 lost it wins $226.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized+$25,050
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7,551
Trades / day365.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $575 $569 −$6 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 43¢ $587 $537 −$50 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29,263 +$13,985 +48%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $3,604 +$732 +20%
Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16,827 +$12,318 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $1,870 +$53 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $265 39m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $8 40m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 48m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $11 50m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $16 51m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 51m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $255 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $584 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 59¢ $802 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 58¢ $3,533 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3,604 2h
Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $115 3h
Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3h
Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $29,263 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,155 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $144 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $162 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,106.25 · official $1,118.75 · 367 history records