Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce7f…dfda other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-7%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$326
14 days−$153
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$66
crypto 13% −$319
sports 7% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -21.7% -29.1% 52% 43% +1.7%
≤30d 37 -37.1% -43.1% 41% 35% -15.0%
≤90d 37 -37.1% -43.1% 41% 35% -15.0%
all 37 -37.1% -43.1% 41% 35% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 35% -15.0%
10% -48.5% 30% -23.2%
15% -53.5% 22% -30.6%
20% -58.1% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$46 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage15d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $700 +$11 +2%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$17 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $107 −$12 -11%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$90 +88%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 +$118 +58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $403 +$124 +31%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$10 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 −$145 -95%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 +$129 +85%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $700 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $118 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $101 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 18h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $191 18h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $92 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 20h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $112 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 70¢ $322 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $527 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $103 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 40¢ $92 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 43h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $281 43h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 0¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records