Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xce7f…de96 sports 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$522 (-1%) realized −$341 · open −$181
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate68%88W / 41L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$107
14 days+$107
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$260
sports 17% −$783
other 13% −$236
tech 7% +$136
politics 6% +$54
economics 2% −$19
world 1% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.7% -4.4% 67% 33% -2.7%
≤30d 9 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 33% -4.0%
≤90d 73 -19.3% -27.0% 60% 42% -16.9%
all 129 -10.8% -19.3% 68% 39% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 39% -10.5%
10% -27.0% 22% -19.0%
15% -34.0% 14% -26.9%
20% -40.5% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$80 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$1,467
Realized−$341
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses88 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions13
Markets (closed)129 / 142
History coverage236d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $257 $254 −$2 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $230 $231 +$1 (+1%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $206 $208 +$1 (+1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Haaland 88¢ 85¢ $195 $189 −$7 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 82¢ $113 $136 +$23 (+21%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $129 $127 −$2 (-2%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 55¢ $153 $122 −$31 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $77 $87 +$10 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $46 $32 −$14 (-30%)
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $36 $26 −$10 (-27%)
Will Ethena reach $1.20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $375 +$69 +18%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $463 +$36 +8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $77 −$4 -5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $77 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $320 −$9 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $333 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $323 +$10 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $69 +$13 +19%
AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5 May 10 $129 +$29 +23%
AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5 May 10 $94 +$17 +18%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $225 +$108 +48%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 10 $15 +$5 +37%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $170 +$64 +38%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 May 10 $129 +$38 +29%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $120 −$119 -99%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 10 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Caracas FC vs. Racing Club end in a draw? May 10 $48 +$126 +262%
Spread: Racing Club (-2.5) May 10 $99 +$11 +11%
Caracas FC vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5 May 10 $124 +$32 +26%
CD Tolima vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 3.5 May 10 $177 +$33 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 10 $333 +$13 +4%
Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Apr 29 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $125 −$123 -99%
CA Juventud vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: CA Juventud (-1.5) Apr 29 $100 −$99 -100%
Will CA Juventud vs. Academia Puerto Cabello end in a draw? Apr 29 $48 −$47 -98%
Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Club Nacional de Football: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-2.5) Apr 29 $99 +$18 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $99 +$41 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $123 +$54 +44%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $123 +$62 +50%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $177 +$26 +14%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club end in a draw? Apr 28 $47 −$46 -98%
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $123 −$122 -99%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Apr 28 $77 −$76 -98%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5) Apr 28 $123 −$122 -99%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club end in a draw? Apr 28 $33 −$32 -97%
Spread: CD Tolima (-1.5) Apr 28 $99 −$98 -99%
Will CD Tolima vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? Apr 28 $47 −$46 -98%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $37 +$41 +110%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $77 +$20 +26%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $99 +$9 +10%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) Apr 28 $99 +$12 +12%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $99 +$13 +13%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5) Apr 28 $99 +$21 +21%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $99 +$27 +27%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $77 +$59 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $130 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Haaland 88¢ $196 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $231 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $1 23h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $33 23h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $94 23h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $94 23h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $34 23h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $48 26h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $13 26h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $19 26h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $15 26h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $15 26h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $3 28h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $3 28h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $1 28h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $16 36h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $16 36h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $17 42h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $17 42h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 20¢ $31 47h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 20¢ $4 47h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 69¢ $22 47h
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 93¢ $463 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $73 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $80 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $311 4d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 68¢ $94 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,467.04 · official $1,467.07 (match) · 521 history records