Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce7f…f9a4 crypto 876 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (388 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$350 (-4%) realized −$344 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%369W / 753L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day388.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,159
7 days−$1,321
14 days−$1,333
30 days−$1,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (388 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 826 -36.2% -42.3% 28% 27% -23.3%
≤30d 1122 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 32% -12.8%
≤90d 1122 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 32% -12.8%
all 1122 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 32% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover388.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 32% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 31% -21.2%
15% -47.7% 29% -28.8%
20% -52.8% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$344
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses369 / 753
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1122 / 876
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day388.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 25¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+298%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$5 -1310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -955%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$4 -1079%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -976%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$4 -1196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +1098%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -745%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +661%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -463%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +495%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -462%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.10 · official $3.62 (match) · 3500 history records