Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CE 0xce79…5db8 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$210 (+2%) realized +$209 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%59W / 8L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$23
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$201
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +9.0%
≤30d 7 +15.2% +4.2% 100% 29% -5.5%
≤90d 47 +4.4% -5.5% 87% 13% -7.4%
all 67 +2.2% -7.5% 88% 9% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 9% -7.5%
10% -16.4% 3% -16.3%
15% -24.5% 3% -24.4%
20% -31.9% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 38% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$20 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses59 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage104d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $41 +$6 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $190 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $294 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? May 16 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $68 +$122 +178%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $125 −$123 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $481 +$10 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $201 +$9 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $386 −$12 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $97 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $195 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $105 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $198 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $194 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $188 17d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $275 19d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 19d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $93 22d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 22d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $58 40d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 40d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $29 41d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 41d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 41d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 41d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 41d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $68 41d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $125 41d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.20 · official $198.21 (match) · 195 history records