Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce71…83bc
crypto · 59 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$369,019 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$365,488 · open +$4,131
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$322,822
Realized+$365,488
Unrealized+$4,131
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)44 / 59
Avg bet$28,749
Trades / day106.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 18 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,563
7 days+$55,699
14 days+$272,729
30 days+$365,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 98¢ $137,617 $144,543 +$6,926 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 97¢ $53,513 $58,797 +$5,285 (+10%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $33,025 $34,742 +$1,717 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $24,519 $28,378 +$3,859 (+16%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $17,956 $17,639 −$317 (-2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $13,359 $14,552 +$1,193 (+9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $8,759 $5,797 −$2,962 (-34%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $5,572 $5,396 −$175 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $7,342 $3,972 −$3,370 (-46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 28¢ $6,636 $3,664 −$2,972 (-45%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 88¢ 84¢ $1,877 $1,802 −$75 (-4%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,356 $1,394 +$39 (+3%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $908 $770 −$138 (-15%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 12¢ $5,616 $758 −$4,857 (-86%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 87¢ 97¢ $521 $583 +$62 (+12%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $117 $33 −$84 (-72%)
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 79¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 11 $4,618 +$698 +15%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $88,714 +$3,865 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $12,495 +$505 +4%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 08 $6,725 +$209 +3%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 08 $7,614 +$283 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 05 $28,908 +$1,582 +6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $209,267 +$48,557 +23%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 04 $4,569 −$534 -12%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 04 $4,600 +$50 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $341,220 +$87,499 +26%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $22,631 +$3,928 +17%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 03 $9 −$6 -65%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 03 $4,007 +$37 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $175 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1,452 −$11 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $10,853 −$821 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 01 $9,163 −$718 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 01 $5,421 −$343 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $3,150 −$55 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $6,556 +$84 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 01 $99 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 01 $20 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 01 $1,947 −$98 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $719 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $3,549 −$525 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 01 $9,903 −$2,065 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 01 $9,060 −$1,704 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 01 $4,764 −$978 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 01 $2,141 −$218 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 01 $1,662 −$245 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $3,374 −$1,968 -58%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $49,000 +$122,374 +250%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,853 +$147 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $161,273 +$9,656 +6%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $12,123 +$1,023 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 29 $30,210 +$2,507 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 28 $1,937 −$1,017 -52%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $141,700 +$3,414 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 22 $26,108 +$86,022 +330%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang May 22 $885 +$8 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $80,554 −$2,107 -3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $63,815 +$6,275 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 15 $2,597 +$164 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 27% +$73,301
world 27% +$135,035
politics 21% +$24,525
economics 15% +$49,802
other 10% +$86,956
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 93¢ $127 40h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 93¢ $1,229 40h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $83 41h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $284 41h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $2,863 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,924 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,978 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $96 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $14 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $226 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $754 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $988 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,865 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $4,197 2d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 99¢ $242 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 29% +4.5%
≤30d 44 +9.4% -1.0% 57% 14% +14.4%
≤90d 44 +9.4% -1.0% 57% 14% +14.4%
all 44 +9.4% -1.0% 57% 14% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover106.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 14% +14.4%
10% -10.5% 9% +3.4%
15% ← realistic here -19.1% 5% -6.5%
20% -27.1% 5% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322,822.50 · official $322,811.88 (match) · 3500 history records