Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce71…d5f6 other 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,401 (-3%) realized −$1,923 · open +$522
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate64%128W / 73L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$5,292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$342
14 days−$589
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$922
crypto 27% −$286
world 25% −$240
finance 3% −$105
politics 2% −$21
sports 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 33% -30.6%
≤30d 24 -6.6% -15.5% 62% 25% -14.0%
≤90d 98 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 30% -22.1%
all 201 -2.9% -12.2% 64% 28% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 28% -15.0%
10% -20.6% 18% -23.1%
15% -28.3% 15% -30.5%
20% -35.3% 10% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$70 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$5,292
Realized−$1,923
Unrealized+$522
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses128 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)201 / 226
History coverage149d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 81¢ $885 $1,053 +$168 (+19%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 69¢ $735 $825 +$90 (+12%)
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $613 $658 +$44 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 80¢ $516 $610 +$95 (+18%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 34¢ 32¢ $329 $318 −$10 (-3%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $276 $280 +$4 (+2%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 78¢ $136 $156 +$20 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $129 $139 +$11 (+8%)
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 77¢ 86¢ $110 $124 +$14 (+13%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 36¢ $71 $119 +$48 (+68%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 46¢ $61 $110 +$50 (+82%)
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 12¢ 16¢ $78 $106 +$28 (+36%)
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 32¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $180 $97 −$83 (-46%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026? No 75¢ 65¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Yes 45¢ 35¢ $104 $81 −$23 (-22%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? No 74¢ 66¢ $91 $81 −$10 (-11%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? No 87¢ 89¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027? No 60¢ 52¢ $66 $57 −$9 (-14%)
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? No 19¢ 25¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+32%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Yes 85¢ 74¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 51¢ 51¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? No 78¢ 92¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? No 25¢ 34¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $223 +$24 +11%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 25 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 −$4 -14%
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 25 $12 −$2 -17%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Jun 25 $106 +$77 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $522 −$516 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $505 +$76 +15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 14 $1,142 −$247 -22%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $235 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $289 +$52 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $205 +$52 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $664 +$36 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $648 −$212 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $433 +$32 +7%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 31 $1 $0 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $703 +$42 +6%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 31 $1 $0 -5%
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 31 $1 $0 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $692 +$22 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? May 29 $96 −$78 -81%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $210 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? May 29 $744 +$223 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $503 +$40 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $496 +$27 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $506 −$124 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $544 +$36 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $30 −$13 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 03 $121 −$120 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $240 +$17 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $201 +$32 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 24 $30 +$8 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 24 $40 +$6 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 24 $40 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 24 $100 +$8 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 23 $90 +$8 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 23 $30 +$28 +92%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $30 −$19 -63%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $15 −$5 -35%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $200 +$22 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $185 +$30 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $10 +$8 +76%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 09 $819 −$57 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 09 $131 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $21 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $98 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 72¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $20 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 64¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 97¢ $97 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 78¢ $20 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 72¢ $35 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $71 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 68¢ $100 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,292.10 · official $5,291.98 (match) · 1397 history records