Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce6f…18d7 crypto 196 markets active 4d ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$243 (-27%) realized −$244 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%95W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$46
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$42
politics 22% −$195
other 4% −$29
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 47% -28.9%
≤30d 194 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 47% -25.9%
≤90d 194 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 47% -25.9%
all 195 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 47% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -35.6%
10% -24.8% 47% -41.7%
15% -32.0% 47% -47.4%
20% -38.7% 46% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses95 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage258d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.79 · official $10.79 (match) · 299 history records