Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce6e…54d3 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$606 (-17%) realized −$607 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 52% −$68
crypto 26% −$309
other 15% −$163
politics 4% −$39
tech 3% −$33
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -33.2% -39.6% 38% 38% -24.7%
all 59 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 25% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 25% -26.8%
10% -37.2% 20% -33.8%
15% -43.3% 15% -40.2%
20% -48.9% 12% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$36 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$607
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage183d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $49 +$12 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $165 −$162 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 09 $96 −$65 -68%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 08 $140 +$203 +145%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $544 +$101 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 27 $233 −$165 -71%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $94 −$86 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 17 $299 +$17 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 16 $699 −$328 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $18 −$4 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31? Mar 11 $155 −$58 -38%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $61 +$6 +10%
Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31? Mar 10 $110 −$107 -97%
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Mar 09 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $200 +$143 +72%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 04 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $4 +$5 +114%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $5 −$1 -15%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $2 $0 +8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $1 $0 -35%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Mar 04 $45 +$12 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $35 +$27 +77%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-e Mar 01 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 26 $32 −$14 -44%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 mi Feb 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Feb 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? Jan 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 30 $8 +$15 +186%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL No 15¢ $61 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 5¢ $4 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 13¢ $46 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY No 20¢ $40 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY No 27¢ $25 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY No 27¢ $50 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY No 28¢ $50 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? BUY No 0¢ $0 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? BUY No 14¢ $7 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? BUY No 20¢ $61 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? SELL No 23¢ $28 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? SELL No 23¢ $2 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY No 24¢ $54 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY No 14¢ $41 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY No 13¢ $1 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 76¢ $239 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 76¢ $30 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 76¢ $4 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 76¢ $70 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 25¢ $50 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 34¢ $90 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 40¢ $36 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? SELL No 3¢ $7 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? BUY No 5¢ $5 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 43¢ $38 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? BUY No 10¢ $7 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? BUY No 10¢ $8 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? BUY No 10¢ $0 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 52¢ $87 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.88 · official $57.88 (match) · 279 history records