Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce6e…1256 sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-4%) realized −$281 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days−$92
14 days+$9
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$122
other 2% −$117
world 1% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 36% -15.4%
≤30d 76 -5.0% -14.0% 39% 39% -12.0%
≤90d 105 -9.0% -17.6% 38% 38% -14.7%
all 105 -9.0% -17.6% 38% 38% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 38% -14.7%
10% -25.5% 38% -22.9%
15% -32.7% 38% -30.3%
20% -39.3% 38% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$45 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions5
Markets (closed)105 / 110
History coverage48d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ 62¢ $74 $91 +$17 (+23%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 55¢ 56¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 43¢ 42¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Hurkacz 52¢ 51¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 23.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $57 +$76 +133%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $75 +$55 +73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $85 +$79 +93%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$32 +86%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$34 +141%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $50 +$91 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $63 +$69 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $90 −$88 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 11 $51 −$49 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $101 −$22 -22%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $45 −$2 -4%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $47 −$47 -98%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $75 +$69 +91%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $60 −$58 -98%
James McCabe vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $44 +$55 +125%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Botic van de Zandschulp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 +$63 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $63 −$62 -99%
Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 09 $50 +$53 +105%
Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 09 $48 −$47 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $75 +$83 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $38 +$20 +53%
Set 1 Winner: Herbert vs Landaluce Jun 08 $44 +$50 +114%
Set 1 Winner: Bonzi vs Rottgering Jun 08 $46 −$46 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $38 −$3 -8%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $74 −$10 -13%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $72 −$71 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $73 +$96 +132%
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $48 +$57 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $84 −$82 -98%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) May 30 $73 −$71 -98%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) May 30 $60 −$59 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $48 −$48 -98%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Comesana (+1.5) May 30 $60 −$59 -99%
Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5 May 29 $72 +$60 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $37 +$119 +325%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $43 −$42 -98%
Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) May 29 $60 −$59 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $63 +$92 +145%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $63 +$78 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $59 1h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 52¢ $50 1h
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $48 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $77 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $134 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 11h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $130 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $75 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $57 12h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 13h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 100¢ $165 15h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ $56 25h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $75 25h
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 53¢ $31 25h
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 53¢ $7 25h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 51¢ $85 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 35h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 100¢ $141 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $64 40h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 35¢ $50 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $19 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $132 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $63 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 45¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.98 · official $319.25 (match) · 197 history records