Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce6a…67a2
world · 40 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage263d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $37 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $4 $0 +5%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $3 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $2 $0 +13%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$1
other 20% $0
politics 17% +$1
sports 9% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 28h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 30h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $2 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 0% -9.4%
all 38 +0.6% -8.9% 42% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.73 · official $14.70 (match) · 173 history records