Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CE 0xce6a…d94c crypto 491 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$251 (+9%) realized +$274 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%146W / 325L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$252
other 13% −$72
sports 7% +$25
culture 1% −$4
politics 0% +$3
world 0% −$5
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -41.9% -47.4% 20% 18% -23.8%
≤30d 101 -41.0% -46.7% 21% 19% -20.6%
≤90d 150 -38.0% -43.9% 18% 17% +1.7%
all 471 -18.0% -25.8% 31% 30% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 30% -2.0%
10% -32.9% 29% -11.4%
15% -39.4% 27% -19.9%
20% -45.3% 24% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses146 / 325
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)471 / 491
History coverage112d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-55%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 49¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 231 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.72 · official $59.78 · 889 history records