Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce69…6282 world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$24
sports 17% −$23
other 13% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +72.3% +55.9% 50% 50% -38.7%
≤30d 6 +55.6% +40.8% 50% 50% -22.7%
≤90d 23 +6.4% -3.8% 43% 43% -16.8%
all 23 +6.4% -3.8% 43% 43% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 43% -16.8%
10% -13.0% 39% -24.8%
15% -21.4% 39% -32.1%
20% -29.1% 39% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)23 / 31
History coverage82d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 94¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+175%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 50¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $15 −$5 -32%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 +$4 +84%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $6 +$5 +82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 03 $15 −$15 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 20 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$5 +55%
Monaco vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $2 +$5 +237%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $42 +$9 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $15 +$27 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 3m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 7m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $5 14h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $1 33h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 56¢ $5 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes $0 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes $1 36d
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid BUY Hapoel Tel Aviv $1 38d
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid BUY Hapoel Tel Aviv 20¢ $3 38d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes $2 39d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 41d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes $0 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.54 · official $43.54 (match) · 66 history records