trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +72.3% | +55.9% | 50% | 50% | -38.7% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +55.6% | +40.8% | 50% | 50% | -22.7% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +6.4% | -3.8% | 43% | 43% | -16.8% |
| all | 23 | +6.4% | -3.8% | 43% | 43% | -16.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.8% | 43% | -16.8% |
| 10% | -13.0% | 39% | -24.8% |
| 15% | -21.4% | 39% | -32.1% |
| 20% | -29.1% | 39% | -38.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 94¢ | $10 | $27 | +$17 (+175%) |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Spain | 50¢ | 56¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+11%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 31¢ | 30¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 44¢ | 44¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 8¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-60%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 15 | $8 | −$7 | -93% |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $1 | +$2 | +226% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $1 | +$3 | +250% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $15 | −$5 | -32% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $5 | +$4 | +76% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 15 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid | May 07 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $5 | +$4 | +84% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 04 | $6 | +$5 | +82% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 03 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | Apr 27 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Apr 22 | $15 | −$4 | -24% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | Apr 20 | $4 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? | Apr 19 | $10 | +$5 | +55% |
| Monaco vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv | Apr 18 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $20 | +$14 | +72% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? | Apr 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Apr 15 | $2 | +$5 | +237% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 14 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 08 | $42 | +$9 | +22% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 07 | $15 | +$27 | +181% |