Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce68…f6b8 crypto 874 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,328 (-7%) realized −$2,312 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%232W / 642L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$135
14 days−$1,274
30 days−$4,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1,468
sports 27% −$217
crypto 20% −$2,145
other 18% +$548
finance 2% −$550
politics 1% −$164
economics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -14.0% -22.2% 41% 41% +4.9%
≤30d 592 -12.0% -20.4% 24% 23% -29.2%
≤90d 724 -8.0% -16.8% 25% 24% -26.2%
all 874 -5.8% -14.8% 27% 25% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 25% -21.2%
10% -23.0% 23% -28.7%
15% -30.4% 21% -35.6%
20% -37.2% 19% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$18 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,312
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses232 / 642
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions1
Markets (closed)874 / 874
History coverage165d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 473 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $58 +$42 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $149 +$22 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $18 −$15 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $109 +$37 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $65 −$30 -46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$7 +197%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $77 +$69 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $58 +$25 +44%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $22 +$11 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $58 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? Jun 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$11 +263%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$8 +125%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $36 +$10 +28%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$7 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $100 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $58 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $171 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $64 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 85¢ $85 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $10 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 32¢ $3 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 30¢ $3 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 16¢ $2 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 31¢ $3 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 73¢ $146 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $54 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $56 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 11¢ $9 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 11¢ $2 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 34¢ $33 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $54 25h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $2 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $2 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $6 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $2 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $8 3d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 33¢ $3 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $5 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $5 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $5 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $5 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $5 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 3¢ $1 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 3¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 3500 history records