Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce67…8586 world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$6
politics 22% −$1
other 17% $0
sports 13% $0
economics 8% $0
crypto 8% +$1
finance 4% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.3% -7.5% 40% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 7% -10.7%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 7% -10.7%
all 56 +0.4% -9.1% 27% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -10.0%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage313d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 −$2 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $78 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $4 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $9 −$1 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 22 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $50 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 18 $4 $0 +0%
Trump x Zelenskyy meet on Monday? Aug 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 17 $7 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $2 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Aug 14 $1 +$1 +71%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 13 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $36 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 78¢ $36 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 79¢ $36 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $33 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $32 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $2 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $21 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $9 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $32 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $37 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $37 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $4 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records