Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce61…8ef6 sports 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,762 (-23%) realized −$12,745 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%81W / 136L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,262
7 days−$6,197
14 days−$6,197
30 days−$6,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$13,021
sports 40% +$665
world 2% −$391
politics 1% −$5
crypto 1% −$199
culture 0% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 39% -66.0%
≤30d 48 -2.9% -12.2% 44% 42% -62.3%
≤90d 92 -9.1% -17.8% 41% 35% -37.2%
all 217 -11.1% -19.6% 37% 34% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 34% -30.7%
10% -27.3% 33% -37.3%
15% -34.3% 31% -43.4%
20% -40.7% 29% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$187 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$12,745
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses81 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions4
Markets (closed)217 / 221
History coverage631d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $86 $112 +$26 (+31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $136 $99 −$37 (-27%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $154 +$141 +92%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $187 −$178 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappé have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $77 −$53 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 17 $181 −$125 -69%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $108 −$97 -90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 17 $120 −$70 -58%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $387 −$387 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $1,272 −$1,272 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $4,639 −$4,639 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $68 −$67 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 +$54 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $63 +$87 +138%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $66 +$105 +158%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$42 +82%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $114 +$105 +93%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $131 +$67 +51%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $127 +$128 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$4 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $55 +$47 +86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $77 +$88 +114%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $109 +$10 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $88 +$333 +380%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $168 +$159 +94%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $173 +$78 +45%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $32 +$65 +203%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $24 +$21 +86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $197 +$178 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $149 +$16 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $300 +$269 +90%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $21 −$17 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $87 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $40 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $103 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $51 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $68 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $66 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $60 20h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria $1 20h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 15¢ $3 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $6 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $36 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $66 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $71 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 31¢ $22 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $51 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $35 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 55¢ $63 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $51 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 23¢ $26 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $15 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 95¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.99 · official $305.00 (match) · 1252 history records