Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce5e…c0fa sports 466 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$116 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%251W / 202L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$1,294est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$9,141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,767
7 days+$16,439
14 days+$17,216
30 days+$15,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$3,244
other 39% −$4,424
world 0% +$278
crypto 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +43.4% +29.8% 52% 51% +25.2%
≤30d 365 +15.6% +4.6% 57% 55% +3.2%
≤90d 453 +8.5% -1.8% 55% 54% -10.0%
all 453 +8.5% -1.8% 55% 54% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 54% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -18.6%
15% -19.8% 43% -26.5%
20% -27.6% 35% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$327 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$9,141
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses251 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,294
Open positions13
Markets (closed)453 / 466
History coverage49d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $6,430 $6,472 +$42 (+1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $914 $929 +$15 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $466 $474 +$8 (+2%)
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Phoenix Mercury 47¢ 49¢ $235 $245 +$10 (+4%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $219 $239 +$20 (+9%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 44¢ $201 $224 +$23 (+11%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Chicago Sky 53¢ 47¢ $219 $195 −$25 (-11%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $111 $121 +$11 (+10%)
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+5%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 189 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $244 +$256 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $188 +$22 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $251 −$251 -100%
Stroemsgodset IF leading at halftime? Jun 19 $37 +$16 +44%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $115 −$112 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $330 +$173 +52%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $246 +$258 +105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5,342 +$938 +18%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 18 $259 +$251 +97%
Valencia vs. Barcelona: O/U 175.5 Jun 18 $16 +$14 +92%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$31 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4,295 +$4,005 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $83 +$217 +262%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $240 +$263 +109%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $133 −$130 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $241 +$261 +108%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $42 +$198 +474%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,525 +$4,015 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,085 −$3,066 -99%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $447 +$54 +12%
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $344 +$157 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,647 +$2,533 +154%
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$51 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $247 +$254 +103%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2,880 +$2,985 +104%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $167 −$164 -98%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 16 $163 −$161 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$79 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $63 +$157 +250%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $319 +$182 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 +$232 +344%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,649 +$1,991 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 47¢ $239 1h
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $65 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 2h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $154 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $2 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $19 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $2 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $1 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $3 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $3 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $27 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $3 7h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $3 8h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $1 8h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $2 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $251 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $6,476 16h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $188 27h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $115 27h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $244 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $205 36h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $330 40h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $112 40h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $5,301 41h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4,295 43h
Valencia vs. Barcelona: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,140.67 · official $9,140.67 (match) · 1631 history records