Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xce5b…047a other 2827 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$20,750 (+346%) realized +$22,091 · open −$1,341
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%2W / 271L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day138.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$30
politics 48% −$1,427
other 1% +$33
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$49
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-92.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 273 -91.9% -92.7% 1% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 273 -91.9% -92.7% 1% 0% -8.7%
all 273 -91.9% -92.7% 1% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -92.7% 0% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -93.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -94.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -94.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$0 · ×2000.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.77 per $1 lost it wins $14.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$3,014
Realized+$22,091
Unrealized−$1,341
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses2 / 271
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions280
Markets (closed)273 / 2827
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day138.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 280 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $1,450 $2,878 +$1,428 (+98%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $1,450 $22 −$1,428 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: BRAWLSTARS vs Clutchain Female (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Clutchain Female 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49900%)
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 2? Under 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49850%)
Counter-Strike: Nerve of Cow vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Nerve of Cow 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+49900%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+749%)
Exact Score: Caracas FC 2 - 3 Botafogo FR? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49900%)
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49798%)
Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner TEC Esports 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49750%)
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 0¢ 37¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+37000%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49399%)
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Katarina Kujovic No 0¢ 49¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49350%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+663%)
Series: Anyone's Legend Kill Handicap (-10.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+10.5) Weibo Gaming 0¢ 47¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+47350%)
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Samsonova 0¢ 44¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+43650%)
ITF Gaborone: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colalancia DEstree Colalancia 0¢ 35¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+35249%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will "NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Fil Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trent Holbrook be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Defonsio Daniels be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan Clarkson record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA F Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Victor Aguilar Jr. advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Laurie MacKenzie advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lauren Babb Tomlinson advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Michael Stansfield advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will some other outcome be the exact series result of the 2026 Stanley Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 11? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will James Lally be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? Jun 08 $0 $0 -99%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 18, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 10? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 9? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Rihanna have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners thi BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Ed Sheeran have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Noah Kahan have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Rihanna have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners thi BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will three people dissent the June Fed decision? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by bet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 6h
Will Amazon have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Moonshot have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Alibaba have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Moonshot have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Alibaba have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Microsoft have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Kinney Zalesne be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Gregory Jaczko be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,013.79 · official $3,013.65 (match) · 3500 history records