Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce5b…6630
crypto · 763 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$514 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$514 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$514
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses722 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)763 / 763
History coverage63d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 763 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$129
14 days−$96
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $73 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $108 −$100 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$376
weather 4% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -4.6% -13.6% 86% 9% -14.8%
≤30d 335 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 4% -11.2%
≤90d 763 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 4% -10.3%
all 763 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 4% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 1% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2353 history records