Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CE 0xce5a…5dc7 other 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,338 (+103%) realized +$1,338 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,332
14 days+$1,332
30 days+$1,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,333
weather 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +68.2% +52.2% 100% 100% +93.2%
≤30d 5 -0.6% -10.0% 60% 60% +85.2%
≤90d 6 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 50% +82.3%
all 6 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 50% +82.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 50% +82.3%
10% -32.2% 33% +64.8%
15% -38.7% 33% +48.9%
20% -44.8% 33% +34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +102% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$457 vs −$19 · ×23.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.86 per $1 lost it wins $23.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,338
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage60d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,068 +$1,319 +124%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $106 +$14 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34 −$33 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,068 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $120 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 17d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? BUY No 82¢ $11 64d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? BUY No 82¢ $9 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records