Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce54…22b9 other 65 markets active 10h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-10%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%23W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$34
sports 38% +$6
crypto 15% +$6
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 33% -24.3%
≤30d 33 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤90d 64 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 33% -21.4%
all 64 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 33% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 33% -21.4%
10% -28.8% 31% -28.9%
15% -35.6% 31% -35.8%
20% -42.0% 28% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses23 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage81d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Vitinha: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 $0 -33%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +159%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $6 +$5 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 28 $3 $0 -9%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $7 +$14 +202%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $6 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $3 −$1 -31%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $3 $0 +0%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 12 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 11 $3 $0 +3%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles May 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 10 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 06 $1 +$3 +280%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 10h
Vitinha: 1+ goals SELL Yes $1 10h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 10h
Vitinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $3 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $3 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 4d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 4d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.15 · official $3.15 (match) · 119 history records