Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xce53…834b sports 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,855 (-4%) realized −$3,303 · open −$552
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%248W / 221L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$552est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$822
other 31% −$1,317
economics 7% −$483
tech 5% +$1,356
politics 3% +$341
crypto 1% +$39
world 0% −$21
weather 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 29% -14.9%
≤30d 97 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 43% -4.3%
≤90d 469 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 46% -8.2%
all 469 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 46% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 46% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 41% -17.0%
15% -25.6% 35% -25.0%
20% -32.9% 29% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$110 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$2,004
Realized−$3,303
Unrealized−$552
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses248 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$552
Open positions12
Markets (closed)469 / 482
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$198
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 52¢ 36¢ $1,673 $1,169 −$504 (-30%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 52¢ 51¢ $389 $381 −$7 (-2%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 27¢ 25¢ $170 $158 −$13 (-7%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 89¢ 71¢ $88 $70 −$18 (-20%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $62 $57 −$5 (-8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 24¢ 19¢ $63 $50 −$13 (-20%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 63¢ 71¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+13%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-3%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 69¢ 86¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+23%)
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 83¢ 86¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 81¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$3 +35%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 20 $709 −$16 -2%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +93%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 19 $57 +$3 +4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $217 +$49 +22%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 19 $367 −$16 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 18 $379 +$22 +6%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $1,444 +$70 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $52 +$30 +58%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $67 +$50 +75%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +6%
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $99 +$15 +15%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $533 +$33 +6%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 16 $422 −$12 -3%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $111 +$1 +1%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $986 −$232 -24%
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 15 $100 −$15 -15%
Discord IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $217 +$8 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $388 −$388 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $463 +$17 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $898 +$373 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,535 +$1,262 +82%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $522 −$94 -18%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $259 +$18 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 06 $1,717 −$33 -2%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $107 −$27 -25%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $693 −$78 -11%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $173 +$22 +13%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $59 +$59 +100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $608 +$150 +25%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $432 +$117 +27%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 03 $759 −$7 -1%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 02 $22 +$2 +9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $595 −$595 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $223 +$152 +68%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $315 +$185 +59%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $90 +$23 +25%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $240 +$5 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $9 +$8 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $380 −$380 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $3 $0 -2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $432 −$39 -9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $159 −$6 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $680 +$320 +47%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $328 +$164 +50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $1 +$2 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6m
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 35¢ $70 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 76¢ $43 2h
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 72¢ $93 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $24 5h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $4 5h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $3 5h
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $8 22h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 33¢ $12 23h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 23h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 34¢ $3 24h
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 81¢ $3 24h
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $35 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $12 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $8 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $3 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $3 25h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $51 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $5 26h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $11 26h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $3 27h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 38¢ $3 28h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 38¢ $27 28h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $4 28h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $3 28h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $3 29h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 34¢ $58 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,003.76 · official $2,003.76 (match) · 3500 history records