Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce52…1752 world 95 markets active 3h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%31W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$8
other 18% +$7
sports 14% −$13
politics 13% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 +1.6% -8.0% 32% 5% -9.4%
all 95 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 7% -9.7%
10% -17.0% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses31 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage528d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $9 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $44 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $153 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $70 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $52 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $161 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $172 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $72 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $30 −$2 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $1 +$1 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $74 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $45 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $45 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $45 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $44 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $21 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $19 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $6 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $18 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $23 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $37 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records