Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xce52…284e crypto 91 markets active 10h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$380 (-5%) realized −$353 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$303
14 days+$303
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$96
sports 34% −$356
other 13% +$54
tech 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +89.1% +71.1% 67% 67% +97.1%
≤30d 4 +41.8% +28.3% 50% 50% -0.0%
≤90d 4 +41.8% +28.3% 50% 50% -0.0%
all 89 -12.0% -20.3% 44% 42% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 42% -14.0%
10% -28.0% 36% -22.2%
15% -34.9% 30% -29.7%
20% -41.3% 26% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$58 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$353
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 50
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage235d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $525 $505 −$21 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 +$241 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $111 +$117 +105%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Nov 27 $300 +$272 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Nov 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Nov 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 18 $25 +$18 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 18 $30 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Nov 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 17 $30 +$37 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 17 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 17 $30 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Nov 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9AM ET Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 13 $20 +$31 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 13 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8AM ET Nov 13 $30 +$90 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 13 $40 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7AM ET Nov 12 $60 −$33 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6AM ET Nov 12 $30 +$52 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 12 $40 −$28 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 11 $60 +$59 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 11 $14 +$16 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Nov 11 $100 +$70 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7AM ET Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 12PM ET Nov 08 $30 +$19 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 9AM ET Nov 08 $20 +$73 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 9AM ET Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 1PM ET Nov 08 $100 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1PM ET Nov 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12PM ET Nov 07 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET Nov 07 $200 +$190 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET Nov 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10AM ET Nov 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 10AM ET Nov 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 8AM ET Nov 07 $150 +$54 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 34h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 46h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 46h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $228 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $111 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $263 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $100 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $30 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $40 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $572 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $300 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $30 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $30 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $30 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $19 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $30 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $30 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.77 · official $598.77 (match) · 209 history records