Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CE 0xce51…cd48 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+12%) realized +$133 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate75%40W / 13L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$118
other 12% −$31
world 1% −$10
sports 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 58% +0.4%
≤30d 53 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 58% +0.4%
≤90d 53 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 58% +0.4%
all 53 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 58% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 58% +0.4%
10% +15.2% 49% -9.2%
15% +4.1% 40% -18.0%
20% -6.1% 21% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses40 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 98 history records