Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce50…1e2d world 269 markets active 16h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-11%) realized −$187 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%115W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$40
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$25
crypto 24% −$22
politics 16% +$41
other 14% −$30
economics 3% −$1
sports 2% +$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 36% -0.3%
≤30d 56 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 29% -1.4%
≤90d 187 +9.6% -0.9% 51% 26% -7.6%
all 232 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 28% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 28% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 20% -17.4%
15% -20.7% 17% -25.4%
20% -28.5% 16% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses115 / 117
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions37
Markets (closed)232 / 269
History coverage98d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 56¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 35¢ 92¢ $4 $12 +$7 (+162%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $9 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 68¢ 76¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 77¢ 70¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 55¢ 78¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 16¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-77%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $9 −$3 -36%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $1 $0 +34%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 27 $11 $0 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $33 +$17 +52%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -80%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $53 +$13 +25%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -66%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +24%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +186%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -17%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $41 +$3 +8%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$4 -14%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $4 +$22 +592%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $12 +$8 +68%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -44%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +47%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +270%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $7 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $0 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.57 · official $148.72 · 3000 history records