Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce4d…d0e2 politics 488 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,036 (-7%) realized −$7,831 · open −$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate71%187W / 77L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$21,662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$8,114
politics 34% −$2,365
other 6% −$955
finance 4% +$99
tech 2% +$124
sports 0% +$752
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.5% -4.6% 62% 28% +9.3%
≤30d 132 +5.3% -4.7% 65% 17% -10.6%
≤90d 264 +34.1% +21.3% 71% 20% -4.7%
all 264 +34.1% +21.3% 71% 20% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.3% 20% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here +9.7% 11% -13.8%
15% -0.9% 10% -22.2%
20% -10.6% 9% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +63% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$122 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$21,662
Realized−$7,831
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses187 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions225
Markets (closed)264 / 488
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$222
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 225 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $953 $960 +$7 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $671 $694 +$24 (+4%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $576 $576 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $460 $499 +$39 (+8%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $472 $493 +$21 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $458 $491 +$33 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $484 $481 −$3 (-1%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $476 $471 −$5 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 79¢ 90¢ $401 $460 +$59 (+15%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $411 $445 +$34 (+8%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $413 $440 +$27 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $385 $392 +$7 (+2%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $384 $392 +$9 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 70¢ 95¢ $264 $355 +$91 (+35%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $316 $335 +$19 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $281 $298 +$17 (+6%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $289 $298 +$9 (+3%)
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $274 $296 +$23 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $287 $295 +$8 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $274 $293 +$19 (+7%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $283 $293 +$10 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $270 $291 +$21 (+8%)
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $270 $288 +$18 (+6%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $283 $286 +$3 (+1%)
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $270 $279 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 21 $194 +$15 +8%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $200 +$5 +2%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $28 +$36 +129%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $659 +$9 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $140 −$50 -36%
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will David Jones win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 19 $279 +$21 +8%
Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 19 $184 +$14 +8%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 19 $138 +$63 +46%
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $240 +$10 +4%
Will Casey Armitage be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Jun 18 $0 $0 +552%
Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -89%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $163 $0 +0%
Will Joy Eakins win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary electi Jun 18 $1 $0 -62%
Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 18 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 18 $92 +$6 +6%
Will Wade Burleson be the Republican nominee for OK-03? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $872 +$278 +32%
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 17 $187 +$13 +7%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $191 +$24 +13%
Will Frank Lucas be the Republican nominee for OK-03? Jun 17 $125 +$5 +4%
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $141 +$24 +17%
Will Dathan Jones be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? Jun 16 $0 $0 -59%
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary Jun 15 $93 +$7 +7%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 15 $207 −$84 -40%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 15 $86 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $702 +$385 +55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $112 +$78 +69%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $631 +$369 +58%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Jun 14 $97 −$1 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 11 $82 −$46 -56%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 11 $36 −$28 -76%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 11 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 11 $79 −$72 -90%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 11 $87 −$46 -53%
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 10 $62 +$4 +6%
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? Jun 10 $6 −$4 -57%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mullins McLeod win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pr Jun 10 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Aury Nagy be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jeff Gunter be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tera Anderson be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $191 8m
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 40m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 1h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 1h
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $205 1h
Will Randi White be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Randi White be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Randi White be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Randi White be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $57 2h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $35 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $77 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $61 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 71¢ $71 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 72¢ $37 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 72¢ $35 4h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 4h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $57 4h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 4h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 4h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $58 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,662.10 · official $21,676.76 (match) · 3500 history records