Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

CE 0xce4c…e264 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$240 (+17%) realized +$118 · open +$122

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown75%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$92

7 days+$24

14 days+$175

30 days+$191

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-24.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-51.6%	-56.2%	33%	33%	-5.6%
≤30d	17	-16.4%	-24.4%	41%	41%	+8.5%
≤90d	17	-16.4%	-24.4%	41%	41%	+8.5%
all	17	-16.4%	-24.4%	41%	41%	+8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.4%	41%	+8.5%
10%	-31.6%	35%	-1.9%
15%	-38.2%	35%	-11.4%
20%	-44.3%	29%	-20.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -52% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$75 vs −$34 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$522

Realized+$118

Unrealized+$122

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage15d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown75%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	54¢	70¢	$400	$522	+$122 (+31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$158	+$114	+72%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 20	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 20	$13	−$13	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$225	+$37	+17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$49	−$49	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$26	+$12	+46%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$37	−$37	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$80	+$228	+286%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$64	+$66	+103%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Jun 07	$43	−$43	-100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves	Jun 07	$11	−$11	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 07	$26	+$24	+90%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres	Jun 07	$42	+$45	+106%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	48¢	$53	56m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	49¢	$106	57m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$105	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	58¢	$53	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	56¢	$105	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	63¢	$105	43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	44¢	$53	45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	82¢	$225	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$26	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$11	4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$26	5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$16	6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$16	6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	41¢	$37	7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$43	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$21	7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	16¢	$37	7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$21	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$84	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$32	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$16	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$11	9d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres	BUY San Diego Padres	52¢	$21	14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$28	14d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres	BUY San Diego Padres	41¢	$21	14d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY Los Angeles Angels	5¢	$11	14d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	50¢	$26	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.20 · official $522.20 (match) · 50 history records