Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xce4b…3c4f sports 55 markets active 1d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$243 (-29%) realized −$227 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$142
other 28% −$63
world 7% +$3
crypto 6% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 25% -48.5%
≤30d 8 -71.2% -73.9% 12% 12% -76.3%
≤90d 48 -35.0% -41.2% 29% 27% -42.7%
all 48 -35.0% -41.2% 29% 27% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 27% -42.7%
10% -46.8% 27% -48.2%
15% -52.0% 25% -53.2%
20% -56.7% 23% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 55
History coverage67d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $86 $69 −$16 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-13%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+50%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes $12 $10 −$2 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 18 $5 +$2 +34%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $10 +$6 +59%
Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 May 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 May 05 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $26 −$10 -37%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 03 $5 −$2 -37%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 03 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 26 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 26 $20 −$19 -98%
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Apr 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $32 −$31 -98%
LeBron James: Points O/U 24.5 Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 25 $7 +$12 +165%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $25 +$60 +241%
Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $21 +$14 +67%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 23 $20 +$27 +136%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 Apr 22 $18 +$13 +72%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $12 +$14 +119%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $7 +$8 +113%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $12 −$11 -98%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -93%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? Apr 10 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $10 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? BUY No $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? SELL Yes 89¢ $13 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $11 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $66 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 5d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 13¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 5d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $13 21d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 34¢ $1 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $10 29d
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 29¢ $5 30d
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 29¢ $6 30d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.17 · official $135.17 (match) · 104 history records