Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xce4b…9bea weather 408 markets active 2d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate84%342W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$17
crypto 15% −$46
other 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +41.7% +28.2% 29% 11% -7.5%
≤30d 39 +40.6% +27.3% 31% 10% -7.8%
≤90d 406 +0.1% -9.5% 84% 3% -10.6%
all 406 +0.1% -9.5% 84% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -10.6%
10% -18.1% 2% -19.2%
15% -26.0% 1% -27.0%
20% -33.3% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses342 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)406 / 408
History coverage76d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 79¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 73¢ 83¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 +$57 +5163%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +478%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1329%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$3 -68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 16? May 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 16? May 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 16? May 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May May 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? May 17 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 16? May 17 $80 −$24 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 16? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 16? May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 16? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16? May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.54 · official $5.21 (match) · 1371 history records