Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CE 0xce49…a92b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.8%
≤30d	2	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.8%
≤90d	2	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.8%
all	2	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.2%	100%	+26.8%
10%	+14.1%	50%	+14.7%
15%	+3.1%	50%	+3.6%
20%	-7.0%	50%	-6.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$200

Realized−$15

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	No	73¢	81¢	$111	$124	+$13 (+12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$76	$76	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$100	+$12	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$106	+$71	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	73¢	$112	33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$112	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$77	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$177	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$106	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.50 · official $200.51 (match) · 6 history records