Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CE 0xce47…e593 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$15 (+14%) realized +$22 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$16
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2
sports 45% +$18
crypto 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +50.3% +36.0% 80% 80% +15.8%
≤30d 8 +45.9% +32.0% 75% 75% +3.3%
≤90d 8 +45.9% +32.0% 75% 75% +3.3%
all 8 +45.9% +32.0% 75% 75% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.0% 75% +3.3%
10% +19.4% 62% -6.6%
15% +7.8% 62% -15.6%
20% -2.7% 50% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 56¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$8 +39%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $13 +$9 +74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +217%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$8 +112%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 7h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $13 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $7 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.26 · official $18.26 (match) · 17 history records