Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce46…99fe crypto 1549 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%1026W / 523L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$13
14 days+$10
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +2.8% -7.0% 62% 62% -6.0%
≤30d 628 +4.8% -5.1% 71% 71% -5.9%
≤90d 1549 -4.0% -13.2% 66% 46% -10.9%
all 1549 -4.0% -13.2% 66% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 46% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 34% -19.4%
15% -29.1% 23% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1026 / 523
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1549 / 1549
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1549 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records